The BJP has once again reiterated its support for Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, an ally since the 1990s. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, during his two-day tour of Bihar last week, underlined the need for the BJP and the NDA to work unitedly to win the upcoming assembly election in the state.
Amit Shah and Nitish Kumar shared the stage in Patna and promised a flood-free Bihar in the coming five years.
This must have come as a relief to Nitish Kumar and senior leaders of his Janata Dal-United (JDU), who have been worried about their boss’ “unstable and erratic” behaviour in public of late. In his latest public misstep, that too at an event also attended by Amit Shah, Kumar was seen placing his arm around a woman’s shoulder at a function to mark the launch of central and state projects in Patna. This provoked a backlash from the opposition RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal).
The Chief Minister was also criticised after a viral video showed him laughing and talking during the national anthem at an international sports event in Patna on March 21.
The instances have given ammo to the opposition RJD and the Congress to target Kumar with their allegation that the Bihar chief minister is “not mentally or physically stable”. Describing his so-called condition as a matter of great concern for Bihar, opposition leaders say Kumar can’t be given another term in light of his health condition.
Of course, Kumar’s party, JDU, ally the BJP and others have publicly defended him.
Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi of Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), a Nitish ally in Bihar, asserted that there was “nothing wrong with him”.
With the opposition’s increasing attacks on Kumar, will the BJP have a rethink on fighting elections under him?
There is simply too much at stake.
Opposition’s Target
This is not the first time Chief Minister Kumar has made headlines for a flub. Last year, while campaigning for the NDA alliance during the 2024 national election, he predicted that the NDA would win over 4,000 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha. The viral clip was widely used by RJD leaders to deride the veteran politician.
Kumar inadvertently clapped during a tribute to Mahatma Gandhi on Martyrs’ Day on January 30; the awkward moment was caught on camera.
All this is grist for the RJD, which has routinely put up posters mocking Kumar outside the home of former chief minister Rabri Devi – Lalu Yadav’s wife – in Patna.
The Congress and Jan Suraaj Party have also slammed Kumar and said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Shah are projecting him as the NDA’s chief ministerial face for the 2025 polls despite knowing the state of his health.
However, sources say that Nitish Kumar was alert and agile during his two-month-long Pragati yatra that ended on February 21. He visited 21 north Bihar districts to interact with people and get feedback on his governance and developmental works. Kumar was seen to be completely in command while reviewing development works and announcing new projects across Bihar. He even took errant senior officers to task.
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Bihar has always been an electoral enigma for the BJP. Hindutva politics hasn’t worked in the deeply entrenched caste equations of the state. Bihar’s political landscape requires crafting fragile coalitions and a careful balancing act, which no party in recent times has been able to make on its own.
In the 2020 Bihar polls, the JDU won only 43 of the total 115 seats it contested. The BJP outshone Nitish Kumar’s party by winning 74 of the 110 seats it contested. There are 243 seats in the Bihar assembly.
Now, with both Chirag Paswan (Lok Janshakti Party) and Upendra Kushwaha (Rashtriya Lok Manch) back in the NDA, the BJP is hoping for the NDA to perform better than in the 2020 elections.
Bihar’s caste arithmetic indicates that the JDU and BJP, along with allies Chirag Paswan, Jitan Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha, have a considerable electoral edge.
Creating a hallowed place for himself in a state where his own Kurmi caste is just 2.87% of the total votes needed clever social engineering, which Kumar achieved through the caste census. He created new segments of castes and community combinations that went beyond the existing dominant groups.
“The opposition knows well that any personal attack on Kumar will backfire, further consolidating his vote base,” says Ravi Upadhyay, senior journalist.
The outcome of the Bihar caste survey unveiled in October 2023 reflects Kumar’s support base and vote share. The survey revealed that OBCs (other backward classes) and EBCs (extremely backward classes) constitute a whopping 63 per cent of the state’s total population which, per data, stood at 13.07 crores. Of this, the EBC bloc was the largest social segment, accounting for about 36% of the population. Apart from his ‘Luv-Kush’ (Kurmi-Kushwaha) voters, Kumar has many supporters among the EBCs and Mahadalits.
“In the current social-political scenario, NDA is set to sweep this year’s assembly elections in Bihar,” says Nikhil Anand, national general secretary, BJP OBC Morcha.
Therefore, the BJP still considers Kumar a worthy ally who will help win another term in Bihar. The party believes that any anti-incumbency is trumped by the fallout of RJD’s “jungle raj”, still fresh in the minds of people. Comparatively, the BJP believes, Kumar’s 20-year rule has seen some governance in terms of law and order, implementation of schemes for women and poor sections, and infrastructure development like roads and bridges, etc.
Yet, the BJP has kept the JDU guessing. PM Modi, despite calling Nitish Kumar the ‘Laadla Mukhyamantri’ (favourite chief minister) on February 24 during his Bihar tour, didn’t declare Kumar as the coalition’s chief ministerial candidate as the JDU had hoped.
On March 4, at a BJP meeting in Patna attended by state observer ML Khattar and state in-charge Vinod Tawde, a section of party members discussed their future with JDU.
Amit Shah is cognisant of the BJP’s limitations in Bihar, and that is behind his message encouraging party workers to set a long-term “goal of two to three decades for a strong BJP rule in Bihar”.
The BJP is well aware of the reality that it can’t contest polls in Bihar without Nitish Kumar and form a government on its own, for now.
